Now in the midst of the Wuhan Flu crisis, what is the most controversial measure established to save us? It may be the closing of American businesses including our schools and churches.
Restaurants are allowed a takeout trade but the people permitted to dine in their vehicles are seated much closer than simply offering more spacious seating outdoors or even using 50% capacity guidelines indoors.
There are potent negative mental and financial health trade-offs for implementing such extreme isolation measures. Many businesses and families will not recover from the restrictions.
Could vulnerable folks, ill workers and children have been quarantined rather than the healthy population? For years, the routine at the Hong Kong / Mainland China border crossings was that officials collected thousands of temperature readings and queried travelers each day about abnormal health symptoms. They targeted sick people not the healthy to curb an outbreak of anything.
Although every nation’s demographics, housing and markets vary, Sweden with just over 10 million in population is allowing their people much more freedom to move about during these virus days. People are frequenting cafes, gathering outdoors and businesses are open.
Teens can be seen giving hugs, shaking hands and hanging out, nearly an American criminal offense today or at least worthy of a good shaming.
Swedish authorities advised the public to practice social distancing and to work from home, if possible, and urged those over age 70 to self-isolate as a precaution. However, compared to the lockdowns imposed elsewhere, Sweden’s response to the virus allows a liberal amount of personal freedom.
Hanging-out at bars is banned, but restaurant customers can be served at tables instead of just take-out. High schools and universities are closed, but preschools and elementary schools are conducting traditional classes.
“Sweden is an outlier on the European scene, at least,” said Johan Giesecke, the country’s former chief epidemiologist and now adviser to the Swedish Health Agency. “And I think that’s good.”
Other European nations “have taken political, unconsidered actions” instead of ones dictated by science, Giesecke asserted.
Stanford University epidemiologist John Ioannidis, co-director of its Meta-Research Innovation Center, says in a paper published in the life sciences news site STAT that the extreme government measures to prevent infection may lead to more deaths.
“The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic,” Ioannidis says. “But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco,” with policymakers relying on “meaningless” statistics based on unreliable samples.
To reduce the spread of the virus in Germany and the U.K., groups larger than two are currently prohibited unless they are composed of people who already live together. Officials in Italy and France introduced increasingly restrictive limits on public activities and eventually authorized fines because too many people ignored social distancing recommendations.
Los Angeles is threatening to cut-off power and water to businesses violating shut-down orders.
Sweden’s current chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, argued that even if the country’s comparatively permissive policies are an anomaly, they are more sustainable and effective in protecting the public’s health than “drastic” moves like closing schools for four or five months.
Ioannidis says that a population-wide Covid-19 fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza (Jan-Feb 29 regular flu was 20,000 deaths). If that becomes the true rate for Covid 19, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational.
It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Ioannidis notes that “mild” coronaviruses (not COVID-19) have much higher case fatality rates when infecting “elderly people in nursing homes” and account for up to a tenth of respiratory hospitalizations.
The scientist further explains that just because the person died and was positive for a coronavirus does not mean the virus was primarily responsible for the death. His own “mid-range guess” for the COVID-19 mortality rate of 0.3 percent of the U.S. population would produce 10,000 deaths. That number would not be a shocker or record - setter for an “influenza-like illness.”
Sweden had 3,447 confirmed virus cases and 105 deaths by March 22, according to Johns Hopkins University. However, there has been limited testing, with just 24,500 tests conducted by Mar 25.
As of March 29 – 2,484 Americans; 10,779 in Italy; 3,300 in China; and 33,966 worldwide had died from Covid 19 Wuhan Flu. However, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, estimated that the U.S. may see between 100,000 and 200,000 fatalities. He qualified this suggestion saying it is based on an infection model built on assumptions. If the assumptions are incorrect then everything changes according to the doctor.
(Get Lou’s podcast at “No Hostages Radio” and his articles at nohostagesradio.com)
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